The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Keeping pace with the rapidly changing income and consumption pattern, the government will soon come out with a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and develop indices for measuring growth of SSI sector and calculating consumer prices in urban areas.
CPI inflation slowed to 9.39% in April compared with 10.39% in March.
What differentiates Rajan from his predecessors is his proactive steps in anticipating a problem and coming up with out-of-the-box solutions
Raghuram Rajan said the passage of the GST Bill augurs well for the growing political consensus for economic reforms.
As inflation rate is near the upper limit of the comfort zone, experts rule out rate cuts anytime soon
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
The survey showed firms' confidence regarding future business grew at the slowest pace in a year last month.
Govt likely to get full control on policy rate.
Food and fuel are two perennial areas of concern.
With inflation figures expected to be well within RBI's target, there may be room for further rate cut.
The 30-share Sensex ended down 159 points at 27,425 and the 50-share Nifty closed down 24 points at 8,299.
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During April-February, the index of industrial production, a measure of factory activity, declined 0.1 per cent compared with a 0.9 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2012-13.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
In a recent article, Rajan has ridiculed critics of the exchange rate policy.
Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Millions of central government employees were taken for a ride on April Fool's Day.
The official data on April-June GDP will be released on August 31.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
The Karnataka government is also expected to follow suit and withdraw its decision to raise the variable DA.
The NSE Nifty too ended 58.60 points, or 0.54 per cent, higher at 10,967.30 after shuttling between 10,985.15 and 10,928 during the session.
Infrastructure and inflation targeting are expected to be top priorities for the new Reserve Bank of India governor, says A V Rajwade.
The survey showed firms passed on a greater cost burden to consumers. Prices charged rose at their fastest pace since October.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
China's devaluation creates new risk in global financial markets and could prolong the West's slowdown.
The rupee had hit an intra-day low of 61.6750 on Friday, its lowest level since Oct. 17.
The March Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was at (-) 0.85 per cent.
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
'There will always be a challenge to maintain a fine balance to ensure that the growth keeps happening and inflation is contained.'
This development can strengthen the case for interest rate cut by the RBI.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by about 322 points to close above the 60,000 level on Monday tracking gains in banking, IT and energy stocks amid positive global equities. The 30-share barometer closed higher by 321.99 pts or 0.54 per cent at a three-week high of 60,115.13, as 21 of the index constituents closed in the green. After a strong opening, the index touched a day's high of 60,284.55 and a low of 59,912.29.
'While the country has been hit hard from a strong second wave of Covid, we believe the markets are willing to look through that.'
Most immediately, he pledged to move slowly if needed in winding down an oil window that provides dollars directly to state-run oil companies
It is important to note that slowdown in activity is really confined to a selected few regions within China.
The study claims that from its peak of 18 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008, the crony capitalists' wealth is now down to three per cent
Slight recovery in growth is expected only in July-September.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
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